12.6.21

Cryptocurrency astrology #2 ~ Manipulation


Markets have always been and will always be subject to manipulation. Big institutions, big media, social media, FUD, trolling billionaires, governments, central banks and regulators have the power to move markets. But what's moving those movers and shakers? Or to quote Robert Anton Wilson: what's really going on?

A common joke about technical analysis of market movements is to compare it to astrology, or reading tea leaves. Fair enough, but what kind of astrology are these jokers referring to? Sun sign folklore?

Asteroids as market indicators
Momentum and volatility are important variables in technical analysis; they can point to upcoming risks and opportunities. There are lots of indicators for momentum and volatility, like Average True Range, Bollinger Bands and MACD. Simple formulas that use data from the (recent) past to visualize and predict where the market is going.

Planets and asteroids can also point to (market) volatility. Uranus for example is very much about volatility. Mars and Pluto can also indicate agressive movements. When it comes to asteroids, there's a long list of volatility indicators. Some of the obvious and powerful ones would be Pholus (domino effect), Sedna (hitting rock bottom), Phaeton (ride like lightning, crash like thunder) and Icarus (fall). Then there are FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) indicators like Damocles, Chaos, Dufault, Apophis, Lie and Swindle, and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) indicators like Hybris, Achilles and Xanthus.

On the other hand, asteroids can also point to stability, growth and making money, for example in the classic sense of harvest time. Think Ceres, Juno, Crescentia, Lugh, but also Rockefellia, Midas (golden touch), Goldberger and so on. Venus and Jupiter can amplify their themes. Finally, there are more literal indicators for bull and bear markets, like Toro, Turnbull, Ursa and Standing Bear.

Deep learning finds correlations
I'm not going to link to excel sheets or models here, but i'll point out that it's quite easy to create deep learning models for predicting bitcoin price, using nothing but historical bitcoin price data and a 'smart' selection of orbital data. You may see an R2 of 0.25 or better. (R2 being a measure of correlation that can vary between 0 and 1.) While that 0.25 score provides solid quantitative support for a general astrological hypothesis, the practical value is low. The output isn't good enough to inform trading decisions. To obtain actionable information, qualitative astrological analysis is a must.

The Wyckoff method
Let's say ~ for the sake of the argument ~ that astrology can get you good information. Even if for some people that might sound like a conspiracy or metaphysical market manipulation. Now for contrast, let's check out an actual manipulation strategy: the Wyckoff method.





If you want to be able to follow the rest of this post, watch the videos. The oversimplified version is that institutions, or professional traders, have come to bitcoin and now dumb bitcoin is paying the price. So-called whales influence medium-term price action in such a way that inexperienced traders fall victim to their emotions ~ first greed, then fear. It goes like this: first the whales make inexperienced traders buy from them at a relatively high price and then they scare the so-called weak hands out of their investments by creating a huge dip, so they can buy it all back at a discount. Smart! The videos show how the pros have perfected their game. Wyckoff's theoretical pattern and the actual price of bitcoin in the first half of 2021 are almost identical. Definitely smells like market manipulation.

Who is being manipulated?
All this begs a philosophical question. If the price of bitcoin is being manipulated, and at the same time certain 'manipulated' events are predictable using astrology, who is really being manipulated? Since the astrological argument is backed by the precision of orbital mechanics, it would seem that professional traders are playing a game that's embedded in long term astrological weather conditions.



Whale-astrology
For context, let's take a look at some of the key moments in the bitcoin price chart for the first half of 2021. We'll look at the Elon Musk/Tesla-significators and the Bitcoin significators. Research into the astrology of the Wyckoffian method suggests we should also keep an eye on asteroids 15304 Wikberg, 16947 Wikrent and 29845 Wykrota. They seem to point to manipulation of financial markets.


8 february
Tesla buys $1.5 billion in bitcoin, plans to accept it as payment

Sun conjunct Mercury
Wikberg (Wyckoffian manipulation) conjunct Jupiter
Wikrent (Wyckoffian manipulation) square Elowitz (Elon Musk), trine Galactic Center
Tesla square Sun/Mercury, trine Neptune, conjunct China
Refugium (shelter) conjunct Neptune
Bitias (bitcoin) trine Varuna (expansion, growth)
Damocleid 2008 SO 218 (crypto) conjunct Lie, Pandora


24 march
Tesla accepts bitcoin as payment for its cars
Sun conjunct Venus
Bittesini conjunct Uranus
Wykrota square Uranus, Bittesini
Elois trine Uranus, Bittesini
Tesla, Elodie, China trine Neptune
Tesla, Elodie, China square Jupiter
Tesla, Elodie, China quintile Banks, Whalen
Elowitz quintile Damocleid 2008 SO 218
Elois square Bitias


15 april

Coinbase's landmark Nasdaq debut
Whalen (whales) and Banks (banks) conjunct Saturn
Wykrota (Wyckoffian manipulation) opposite Saturn
Wikrent square Bittesini
Elowitz (Elon Musk) conjunct Bitias (Bitcoin)
Elois (Elon Musk) opposite Coyne (crypto)



12 may
Tesla no longer accepts BTC over environmental concerns
Wykrota conjunct Wikrent
Wykrota, Wikrent opposite Whalen
Wikberg conjunct Neptune
Elowitz conjunct Bitias
Tesla, Elodie square Saturn
Bittner conjunct Venus
Bittner, Venus opposite Elowitz, Bitias

Conclusion
Asteroid analysis can point to various 'influences' that move the markets. In this post the emphasis is on the Tesla/Elon Musk significators interacting with Whalen, Banks and the Wyckoffian significators. This is not the whole story. Volatility-indicators like Sedna, Phaeton or Achilles can also be studied in relation to price action. Those correlations can be as strong as the ones shown here. 

So does this mean that astrological analysis is superior to technical analysis, as it factors in manipulation? Not necessarily. Look at Bitcoin. While lots of emotion-driven newcomers in this market will get rekt, there are also lots of smart people in the community. Smart Bitcoin learned about the details of the Wyckoff method very quickly. Therefore it's less likely that the pros can get away with such a blatant trail of evidence a second time. At any rate, lots of small traders will now notice this game and be able to make money off it.